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Iranian Instability

2009-06-16

Category: politics

Iran is experiencing a little instability these days. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his forces are claiming to have won the last election by a landslide. His opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and his supporters are getting uppity with their disbelief in the election. There has been violence and deaths. Where will it end?

In the US, some wonder how we want this to turn out. Some Americans only remember the Iran Hostage Crisis from a couple of decades past. That left a bitter taste in their mouths. Unfortunately, they don't usually remember what the US did to annoy the Iranians so much that Iran has hated the US ever since.

If Ahmadinejad regains control, at least we have a known quantity. We know where he stands and what he is up to. Unlike Kim Jong-Il, Ahmadinejad is relatively sane and intelligent. He'll do all the requisite saber rattling, but he's not going to enter into a serious conflict unless really cornered.

On the other hand, Mousavi is pro-west. His supporters want freedoms and democracy, and possibly, blue jeans. Would that government act the part of American ally in the Middle East? Would it this lead to better relationships with Israel?

If there is continued instability it could open the door for radical Islamic factions to move in. Without the stability of even a dictator, Iran could end up another battlefront in the war on terror. That doesn't sound good.

In the old days, the CIA would have funneled arms and other support to Mousavi's people. By the time the real fighting started, there would be more second hand Kalashnikovs in Iran than in Kazakhstan. It makes me wonder how many Iranian bloggers are on the CIA payroll, whether they know it or not.

I'm not really sure which way I want things to go. There is a balance between my compassion for my fellow life forms and my understanding of the fleeting nature of life and nations. There may be war or peace. Iran may go the way of Persia (hey, wait a minute). Which ever way it goes, I hope the US can say out of it reasonably well.


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